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Monday, 27 May 2013

Asian Pay Television Trust Update

This is one of the stocks which makes me very undecided.

From a fundamental perspective, i don't really like buying it based on my analysis but i am not sure if it due to my biased views on the industry and still am wary of the huge float.

DMG has a research report with a subscribe recommendation. The link is here.

Currently the market is yield starved and when many hungry investors see a headline figure floating in front of you between 7.5% - 8.5%, they just don't care anymore. 

In any case, i think my IPO ratings maybe too "extreme", perhaps i should have given it a 1 chilli rating as it should appeal to those who like the yield and the sector.

My latest update from DBS was that they were cut back severely on their placement tranche as many MIIF investors opted for shares and i was only allocated ONE miserable lot.

Assuming a yield compression to 6.5%-7% for FY13, there is still some "meat" left and the fair value range is between 104 to 118.

I have thus decided to try my luck at the ATM as i only know my allocation today. Hopefully, it will pay off. It will probably be a hit and run for me.


Anonymous said...

The MIIF investors who took shares swapped a lower priced ownership of TBC for a higher priced ownership of TBC.

If there was "meat" on the bone, then it should have been available for chewing by shareholders at MIIF and not at APTT with extra fees, bonus payments, etc. The responsibility for getting the better valuation belonged to the MIIF Board to procure from the manager of the fund, MIMAL. Alas, MIMAL had a performance deficit and they were not going to get any bonuses at MIIF, which they now may once all the other assets are sold.

Stick with fundamental analysis as an investor or be a speculator moved by sentiment, hoping to time the market. Past performance is no indicator of future performance but those who do not learn from history (or from thier studies) are condemned to repeat it.

And, show some love: MIIF shareholders are owed more than one chilli from MIMAL.

Mr. IPO said...

May i ask if you opt for units or cash?

Anonymous said...

same mr ipo, i am damn scared of the huge float, i don't know to buy or not and if so buy how much.

AK71 said...

Hi Mr. IPO,

Nick of time. IPO application closed at 12 noon today, iirc. :)

Mr. IPO said...

haha AK71, never know if it is good or bad till it is over :)

iamnikkin said...

Hi Mr IPO.
Just curious. How many lots did u ATM for??

Mr. IPO said...

Watch for the balloting post....

Anonymous said...

[[ anonymous 7 ]]

re : anonymous : The MIIF investors who took shares swapped a lower priced ownership of TBC for a higher priced ownership of TBC.


It was a daring move that seems, with hindsight, to have caught the MIFF investors out.

This shows the limit to financial engineering, involving Private Equity, and playing around with interest rates and debt.

On a separate note : is Asia Pay TV the sort of infrastructure I should be interested in? Theoretically, if I was to take a (initial?) loss on infrastructure plays, it should be on infrastructure that is really useful; not Pay-TV infrastructure.

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