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Singapore IPOs: Why I No Longer Cover Every Listing

Some readers may have noticed that I have not been writing about every Singapore IPO since last year. The simple reason is that life has become busier. Between my day job, an increasingly packed travel schedule, family commitments and desire to play more golf, I have become much more selective about how I spend my time.  Writing detailed IPO reviews takes time — reading prospectuses, analysing financials, comparing valuations and understanding the competitive landscape. While I still enjoy investing and writing, I no longer feel the need to cover every IPO that comes to market. Instead, going forward, I will probably focus only on IPOs where I am seriously considering investing my own money or where there is something particularly interesting that is worth discussing. I suspect this will make the blog more useful as well. Rather than writing about every deal, I can spend more time sharing my thoughts on the handful that I believe deserve attention. That bring...
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Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Balloting Results


Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust will start trading at 2pm tomorrow. The balloting result is as follows:

Placement Tranche

The placement tranche was 38.1x subscribed. The cornerstone investors were mentioned in my IPO write up here.


Public Tranche

The public tranche was 8.9x subscribed. Investors who applied between 50 to 199 lots will have the best chance of getting the shares. The balloting table is below:


My IPO results

It is apparently easier to get more shares from the ATM than from the placement tranche and I don't have to pay the 1% placement fees. I got 10 lots from placement but 40 lots from the ATM, so vested 50 lots.


I have previously shared with you what i think the fair value will be. So good luck to those who got it and hopefully, Mr. Dow will smile on us tonight.

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Comments

wirbelwind said…
Huh? Wouldnt those who asked for >1000 lots have the best chance since they have the highest balloting ratio?
6 March 2013 at 22:14
Mr. IPO said…
If you see the table, those who applied >1000 lots only get 8.2% of the IPO tranche.
6 March 2013 at 22:37
Anonymous said…
Hi, good that you got so many lots.
But how did you get 40 lots ? Unless you applied twice which is not allowed , or you have 2 accounts ???
6 March 2013 at 22:55
Mr. IPO said…
2 accounts la. Go like my Facebook then you are more updated lor :P
6 March 2013 at 23:10
Anonymous said…
Yup. Those who applied > 1000 lots had the best chance. Balloting ratio. When 2 pax said the same thing maybe ...
6 March 2013 at 23:20
Mr. IPO said…
you cannot read the table just using the "probability ratio" lah. Have to read it in conjunction with the "number of successful applicants" and the % allocated to that particular tranche...
6 March 2013 at 23:23
Anonymous said…
Sorry for being a pain, I would encourage you to seek a 4th opionion.
6 March 2013 at 23:57
Mr. IPO said…
Haha it's ok la. you can disagree :P
7 March 2013 at 00:25
Dividends Wizard said…
likely to trade below $0.90
7 March 2013 at 02:15
Anonymous said…
% for 1000 and above is lower because less people applied so much shares

But it's true that for that band, the chance of a successful ballot is highest
7 March 2013 at 08:36
Anonymous said…
Mr D Wizard,

How to trade below ipo price? Just not possible.

There is not a single pre-ipo investor. Apart from the owner, Mapletree investment, the rest were all placed or balloted the shares with 0.93.

Unless, there are VERY VERY POWERFUL SHORTISTS, no way that the share price could go below ipo price of 0.93.

All the placecees who did not get enough will rush in to buy ...
7 March 2013 at 09:58
Anonymous said…
I agree with Mr ipo. Proabably your must state the reason for looking at each citeria. I think we shld look at the IPO tanche. The balloting ratio tells the number of allocated shares over bidding shares. So someone might bids 15 in the 10 to 19 tier but he still get the 3 lots. Just balloting ratio is not enuough, you need to know know how many person is fighting with you in the tier. The lesser the people the higher the chance that you get
7 March 2013 at 11:37
Anonymous said…
Btw how to have 2 bidding account? Can i open the 3 local ibanking then link it with CDP to bid for IPO?
7 March 2013 at 13:06
Mr. IPO said…
Means you and your spouse or you and your bfs or gfs lah.
7 March 2013 at 13:13
Mr. IPO said…
Hmm.. Finally one supporter. Haha. Let me think about how to explain this la. The purpose of public tranche is to spread ownership and meet the 1000 shareholders rule, so applying 1m shares may not be as "good a chance" as apply 100k shares if the manager decide to allocate more shares to the 100k group to spread the investors base. Not sure if can map this out mathematically but of cos I can be wrong as usual. :P
7 March 2013 at 13:19
Anonymous said…
How about this?

http://madstranger.blogspot.com/2012/09/how-to-read-ipo-balloting-ratio-table.html?m=1
7 March 2013 at 19:16
Mr. IPO said…
Dividends Wizard, have more "confidence" lah :) :P
7 March 2013 at 21:08
Anonymous said…
Can joint accounts apply for ipo ?
8 March 2013 at 09:57
Mr. IPO said…
Just make sure you apply using the different ATM cards or Internet log in. You may want to apply for different "number" of shares in case you get confused as to who was successfully allocated.
8 March 2013 at 10:14
Anonymous said…
Mr IPO, have you taken profit for your 50 enviable lots or keeping for long term ??
Any target price if not sold yet ???
8 March 2013 at 10:32
Mr. IPO said…
Sold partially and still holding. :) no target, just ride it until the implied valuation is ridiculous.
8 March 2013 at 12:54
Ashley said…
Hi Mr IPO,
So you not holding it for the yield? What would be a ridiculous implied valuation?
8 March 2013 at 13:04
Mr. IPO said…
depends. If the book value is 1.3-1.4x should be ridiculous.
8 March 2013 at 14:21
Unknown said…
Hey everyone, I'm new to ipo. Sorry need to ask a noob question. Manage to be allocated a few lot for this exercise. Suppose if I want to sell my shares at the current market price, do I sell it via my own broker? If yes, what will be the charges involved if I have around 2000 units? Appreciate anyone advise. Thanks.
11 March 2013 at 21:36
Mr. IPO said…
Sell through broker will cost your $40 for one trade before gst and online will probably be $28.
11 March 2013 at 21:56
Anonymous said…
when will be another new IPO analysis? I like your blog !
12 March 2013 at 15:02
Mr. IPO said…
probably in late march or april? only one in the pipeline currently...
12 March 2013 at 19:49
Anonymous said…
So lucky...I applied for 15 lots but did not get allocated any...
12 March 2013 at 23:53
Anonymous said…
Whats your facebook name?
14 March 2013 at 07:58
Anonymous said…
have you heard of the KLCC reit that is going to be listed in msia market?
11 April 2013 at 08:36
Mr. IPO said…
Not that I am aware of. Never follow the Malaysia market. :)
11 April 2013 at 10:25
Anonymous said…
Mr. IPO said...
Sold partially and still holding. :) no target, just ride it until the implied valuation is ridiculous.

8 March 2013 12:54

Hi , the price has been hovering around 1.05 for quite sometime.
Are you still holding or have liquidated all your shares ???
12 April 2013 at 11:45
Mr. IPO said…
Still holding
12 April 2013 at 12:05
Anonymous said…
hmm.. well I saw the KLCC reit and it look quite good as they have 6 properties under it and I believe all are located in KL. One of the property include the twin tower.. some of the properties are locked in for 15 yrs with the tenants and there is a 3% increment in rental every yr. Just wondering if it is a good buy as I need to pay my broker firm every month for holding on to foreign shares.
15 April 2013 at 14:25
Mr. IPO said…
Well, you will have to factor in the custodial costs and potential forex movements in your analysis. What is the implied yield on this?
15 April 2013 at 16:00
Anonymous said…
well the yield is 5.2% according to http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2013/3/9/business/12806616&sec=business or http://www.klcc.com.my/InvestorRelations/Financial%20Highlights/Corporate%20Day/20121127%20Analyst%20Presentation_vFFF.pdf which we can see the properties under it and http://upload.xinhua08.com/2012/1128/1354089030635.pdf analysis by maybank. The yield isn't very fantastic but I like the properties being freehold for 5/6 of them and on the long term.. it seem not bad to vest in.
16 April 2013 at 14:37
Anonymous said…
oh ya.. they got strong backbone too LOLOL
16 April 2013 at 14:39
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