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Sunday, 6 March 2011

Perennial China Retail Trust

Latest update:  Reuters reported that Perennial China Retail Trust's IPO will be deferred. The posting below was made prior to that.

I will do a short preview on this and Hutchison business trust as there are many of you interested to know as many were offered placement shares and the book building will close this week. My analysis is preliminary and based on the term sheets which I received and will be updated when the IPO is launched.

Perennial China Retail Trust is launched by the former Capitaland retail head Pua Seck Guan.  I don't think the departure was that amicable as he was in a privileged position to know how Capitaland operates and how they manage their projects etc. It is like you owning a saloon and one of your key hair stylist opening a shop in the same shopping mall and he knows who your top customers are, how you make money, what kind of margins to charge etc. On the other hand, this is none of "my business"and you probably know this guy knows how to run his business and you are in good hands. 

The Business Trust listing will be on the main board of SGX and its focus is in China.  The trust is offering 1,092,000,000 units of which 55% is for international placement, 40% for cornerstone and up to 5% for the public. The indicative price is S$1 per unit and is priced at a 22% discount to analysts consensus NAV per unit. The distribution yield is projected at 3% for FY2011 and 3.1% for FY2012. Do note that this is not a REIT, it is a Business Trust. The difference between a business trust and reit can be found here.

Another "relative" peer will be Capmallasia. The entity is trading at 1.16x price to book and have a yield of 1.143%. In that regard, Perennial China Retail Trust is more attractively priced for investors who like to have an exposure to the China Retail sector. 

I will comment on whether the share is worth a stag and its "fair value" when the final prospectus is registered and the pricing finalized.

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