Thursday, 26 July 2007

Fair Value

Fair value - have you ever wondered what is fair value and what is not? When someone says the fair value of ABC company is 50 cents, what exactly does it mean? Is it true that as long as someone is willing to pay a price for it at arms length, that value is a fair one? (this topic can go on and on for days without a conclusion). hahaha

I managed to get 3 lots of Avi-Tech from the public tranche (it has been a long time!) and i exited early this morning but somehow the share price of AVI just keep going up and up and closed at 75.5 cents versus the IPO price of 33 cents. It somewhat proved to me that my "fair value" for Avi-Tech is 'wrong'. Perhaps i should be less biased against tech companies and should be more aggressive in my valuation matrix and should be more convinced about the placement capability of Westcomb as well.. :P

Based on the current bullish sentiments, should i then revise my valuation matrix for tech companies to 15-20x instead of the 8-10x? If i have used a more 'bullish' valuation matrix, the fair value range for Avi-Tech and MAP Technology will be between 64 cents to 86 cents.

However, what may be a "fair value" today may not be the "fair value" 6 months down the road and it is affected by many different factors. As such, do take note that the fair value presented in my blog is based on the information i derive from the prospectus, the assumptions i made regarding growth of the Company and this fair value can vary greatly as time progress when new facts are presented regarding the growth and execution capability of the management. The visibility of the Company will also be clearer as time progressed.

Happy investing.

4 comments:

Xtrocious said...

I think your valuations are not wrong...just that the market isn't trading on valuations anymore - and that is worrying...

2Y Capital said...

Xtrocious, seemed like your worries are justified. :)

Kok Keng said...

Hi 2Y, great question. I'm pretty new to this and just happened onto your blog. I followed avi-tech recently and first of all, congrats on doubling your money on the IPO =p I lost out on the bid.

I wanted to ask how you came up with the 8-10x forward PE for techs? Every company seems pretty unique even if they're in the same industry. Apart from the usual financial valuations, the company fundamentals seem really solid. I'm coming from an operations background and I've worked with ppl in this industry.
Avi-tech's had 20 yrs in the business. Closest competitor is another local company that ipo'd in '93, is currently twice Avi-tech's cap and sales, but makes only half the profits, so they've got to be doing something right. Avi-tech's seemed to have secured a pretty good niche in providing high-end burns and have an incredibly diverse set of customers. Their also close to completely depreciating their equipment in a few years (of course the equipment can prob carry on well after the accounting lifetime), their balance position will be even more incredible. The only concern is their high receivables exposure.

What I'm unsure is, if a company is fundamentally solid and will continue growing steadily in years to come, how high is too high? Is it really fair to put a matrix on it? What's to say it won't hit $1, $2, or more by next year? Or maybe we'll hafta wait and see if their China operations take-off.

2Y Capital said...

Dear Kok Keng,

Thank you for your posting and if i read you correctly, you are from the IT industry and somewhat very familiar with this Company. Your knowledge of this company will clearly put you in a 'clear advantage' compared to investors like me who rely on prospectus to 'guesstimate' future year earnings. Many companies try to 'boost' their earnings in the year of listing so as to acheieve a more attractive valuation and your concern for high AR is not unfounded. The valuation matrix of 8-10x is given by the market for a start. This valuation matrix can go up or down depending on whether the management is able to execute its plans. As such, you are right to point out that nothing will stop it from going to $1 or $2, but it will take time for the market to be familiar with them.

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