Tuesday, 29 January 2013

Halcyon Agri


Halcyon Agri (the "Company") is placing out 61m Placement Shares, comprising 44m New Shares and 17m Vendor shares at $0.36 each for a listing on the Catalist. The prospectus is here. It is disappointing that once again, there are no public tranche and the placement offer will end on 30 Jan and start trading on 1 Feb 2013. The market cap based on the IPO price is S$104.4 million.

The Company operates in the midstream of Natural Rubber supply chain, specializing in processing and merchandising of Natural Rubber. According to the prospectus, it is one of the largest exporter of Natural Rubber in South Sumatra, Indonesia. The final customers will probably be the tyres manufacturer and the Company is certified by the top 20 manufacturers. Major customers include Cooper Tire, Bridgestone, Sri Trang and New Continent.

Financial Performance


The NAV per share post IPO will be Singapore 15.49 cents. Based on the enlarged share capital and assuming the service agreement was in place, the EPS for FY2011 will be approximately Singapore 1.81c. This translate into a historical PER of around 20x. 

Looking at 9 months results, it seemed that net margin has "suddenly improved" from 2.76% to 5.2%... hmmm....

Assuming the sales is flat but the margin has improved, the net profit for FY2012 will be around US$12m and the EPS will be (US$12m x 1.236 divide by 290m shares) = Singapore 5.1 cents. That will translate into a FY2012 PER of 7x, which is probably reasonable.  Assuming 25% is paid out, the implied yield will be around 3.5%.


Dividend Policy

The Company intends to distribute at least 25% of its net profit attributable to shareholders for FY2012 and FY2013.

Fair Value

Assuming a trading range of 6-10x, the fair value will probably be between 30 to 51 Singapore cents but downside should probably be limited by the dividend yield and the current bullish sentiment. The Company has a low free float of 20% (or 59m shares) so trade with caution. I will not be surprised if it trades towards the upper boundary of the fair value range.

Happy IPOing. Hope to see some real IPO soon....


Tuesday, 8 January 2013

Logistics Holdings Limited



Logistics Holdings Limited ("the Company) launched its IPO for a Catalist listing via placement of 42.075m shares where 31.875m are New shares and the balance vendor shares at $0.23 each. The prospectus is here.

The Company has a track record of 27 years and is principally engaged in building and construction works for government and government related bodies. The IPO will be listed on 18 Jan 2013 at 9am. Since this is a "Placement only" IPO, there is no public tranche. 

Financials


Based on the enlarged share cap of 170m shares and assuming the service agreement was in place, the EPS for FY2012 = Singapore 2.576 cents. This translate into a listing PER of 8.9x. The market cap based on the IPO price is $39m.

Shareholding


Strong Hands?

Not sure who Lim Chye Kim is but he is described as "not related" to the major owners. He invested at 22 cents, which is not much cheaper than the public investors (good sign). Post IPO, he will hold 3.9% of the Company and has undertaken not to sell the company for first 6 months and not to divest more than 50% of his holdings from the 7th to 12th month. Is he the in-house magician that will  perform some magic to the share price post IPO since he will be there for the next 12 months?  Perhaps informed blog readers can shed some light? haha

Dividend Yield

The order books appeared to be very healthy and as of 6 Dec 2012, stand at S$232.90m. The Company intends to distribute not less than 20% of its profit to shareholders as dividends for FY 2013. I am not privy to the forecasts but assuming the profits for FY2013 remained the same as FY2012, the dividends will be 20% x EPS of 2.576 Singapore cents = 0.5152. That translate into a yield of 2.24%.

Clientele

The Company is a long established one and has a "blue chip" clientele of primarily government agencies. That is quite amazing and bad debts is unlikely to be an issue if the company delivered according to the contract specifications.

Fair Value

I will not attempt to give a fair value since there is no public tranche. The recent Kori IPO is still 22% above its IPO price and closed above 14% above its IPO price on the first day. Its performance table below.


If you have been following my blog, you will know how i view small cap catalist companies in the construction industry somemore. hahaha. Probably a big "Avoid" 

Vested

An old friend ask me if i am keen to take some placement shares.  Since this is the first IPO of the year and will list on an auspicious date of 18th Jan, i decided to be part of the action!  Wish me luck? Huat ah.... :) 

Happy IPOing. 

Monday, 7 January 2013

Singapore IPOs Tikams for 2012

I thought i should start the first post of 2013 with an update to the post i wrote in July last year regarding the performance of my IPO tikams.

The 2012 profit from IPOs (for those IPOs that i have been allocated via public or placement tranche) stands at $4,922.57. Let's see if 2013 will turn out to be a better year.

Lesson learnt

The table below (sourced from www.shareinvestor.com) shows the performance of the IPOs as of today.


The humble lesson learnt is perhaps that those counters that I don't really like during my review - Geo Energy, Maxi-Cash and Civmec have turned out to be the best performers. Perhaps you should invest contrary to my recommendations and buy on the first day of listing and you would still have made a fortune!  

Happy IPOing and hope that 2013 will turn out to be a good year for us.

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